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Mặc dù các cơn sốt đất nền xảy ra ở nhiều nơi nhưng khó có thể xảy ra bong bóng BĐS, do có sự can thiệp, điều chỉnh ngày càng kịp thời và hiệu quả của nhà nước. Bên cạnh đó, các doanh nghiệp cũng nỗ lực tái cơ cấu đầu tư, định hình lại sản phẩm phù hợp nhu cầu của thị trường. Và đặc biệt do các nhà đầu tư thứ cấp ngày càng tỉnh táo, am hiểu thị trường hơn.

“Nói cách khác, qua trải nghiệm các đợt khủng hoảng của thị trường bất động sản thì các chủ thể đều thông minh hơn: Nhà nước thông minh hơn, chủ đầu tư thông minh hơn, ngân hàng thông minh hơn, người tiêu dùng thông minh hơn. Đến nay, có thể nhận định không có khả năng xảy ra bong bóng bất động sản trong năm 2019”, báo cáo nhấn mạnh.

Xuất hiện các cơn sốt ảo đất nền

Mặc dù vậy, HoREA cũng thừa nhận trong thời gian qua, đã xuất hiện các cơn sốt ảo đất nền. Cụ thể, giá đất nền tại các xã ven đất nền sân bay long thành (Đồng Nai); các địa phương dự kiến trở thành đặc khu kinh tế như Vân Đồn (Quảng Ninh), Bắc Vân Phong (Khánh Hòa), Phú Quốc (Kiên Giang) hoặc tại một số quận ven, huyện ngoại thành thành phố Hồ Chí Minh tăng chóng mặt.

“Tuy nhiên, đây chỉ là những đợt sốt giá cục bộ trong phân khúc thị trường đất nền, đất nông lâm nghiệp mà thủ phạm chính là giới đầu nậu và cò đất thổi giá, tạo sóng gây ra các đợt sốt ảo. Với sự chỉ đạo quyết liệt và hiệu quả của Thủ tướng Chính phủ, UBND các tỉnh, tình hình sốt ảo giá đất, giá đất nền hiện nay đã bước đầu được kiểm soát, hạ nhiệt.

Riêng, đối với căn hộ chung cư là phân khúc thị trường lớn nhất của thị trường BĐS đã không xảy ra hiện tượng sốt giá, thậm chí nhiều chủ đầu tư đã giảm giá bán căn hộ chung cư, nhất là các dự án căn hộ vừa túi tiền”, HoREA khẳng định trọng văn bản.

HoREA cũng cho biết thị trường BĐS năm 2019 khác hoàn toàn với hai cuộc khủng hoảng bong bóng bất động sản năm 2007 đầu năm 2008, và năm 2010.

sot-ao-dat-nen

Xuất hiện các cơn sốt ảo đất nền

6 nguyên nhân gây khủng hoảng bất động sản

Cụ thể, cuộc khủng hoảng bất động sản giai đoạn 2001-2010 bắt nguồn từ 6 nguyên nhân. Thứ nhất, tăng trưởng GDP năm 2007 đạt 8,48% là mức rất cao, dẫn đến nhiều doanh nghiệp và người dân dễ kiếm tiền và bất động sản là kênh đầu tư là tài sản được lựa chọn để cất trữ, để kinh doanh, kể cả đầu cơ;

Thứ hai là chính sách nới lỏng tín dụng, thậm chí đã cho vay dưới chuẩn, tăng trưởng tín dụng năm 2007 rất cao lên đến hơn 37%, phần lớn đổ vào bất động sản.

Thứ ba là có sự phát triển lệch pha cung – cầu, chủ yếu là phát triển nóng ở phân khúc bất động sản cao cấp.

Thứ tư là xuất hiện nhiều nhà đầu tư thứ cấp, môi giới, cò đất đi đôi với các đợt sóng đẩy giá tăng chóng mặt, kích thích tâm lý đầu tư “bầy đàn” trên thị trường bất động sản;

Thứ năm, các cơ quan Nhà nước có thẩm quyền không sử dụng kịp thời, hiệu quả công cụ về thuế; tín dụng; quy hoạch… để điều tiết hiệu quả thị trường bất động sản ngay khi vừa xuất hiện dấu hiệu bong bóng.

Cuối cùng, cuộc khủng hoảng bong bóng bất động sản năm 2010 còn là hệ quả của gói kích cầu đầu tư 1 tỷ USD vào giữa năm 2009, trong đó có một phần đáng kể nguồn vốn đổ vào BĐS mà không được các ngân hàng thương mại kiểm soát chặt chẽ.

Nhiều lý do chưa xảy ra hiện tượng bong bóng BĐS

Đối chiếu các nguyên nhân dẫn đến bong bóng bất động sản nêu trên với tình hình thực tiễn của thị trường hiện nay, HoREA nhận thấy năm 2019 vẫn chưa thể xảy ra bong bóng BĐS bởi nhiều lý do.

Thứ nhất tăng trưởng GDP cả nước năm 2017 đạt 6,81%, cao nhất trong 10 năm qua, là mức tăng trưởng tích cực và hợp lý.

Thứ hai tăng trưởng tín dụng của cả nước năm 2017 đạt 18,17% (chỉ gần bằng phân nửa mức tăng trưởng tín dụng nóng 37% của năm 2007) dự kiến tăng trưởng tín dụng đạt khoảng 17% cũng là mức tăng tích cực và hợp lý. Ngân hàng Nhà nước đang thực hiện chính sách kiểm soát chặt chẽ nguồn tín dụng vào các lĩnh vực tiềm ẩn rủi ro cao như bất động sản.

Thứ ba, mặc dù trên thị trường bất động sản hiện nay, có 2 nhân tố cần được tiếp tục quan tâm để quản lý, kiểm soát đó là vẫn còn có tình trạng lệch pha cung – cầu BĐS cao cấp, BĐS nghỉ dưỡng, sốt giá ảo tại một số khu vực. Đồng thời, cũng đang xuất hiện nhiều nhà đầu tư thứ cấp, đầu cơ, đầu nậu làm giá, thổi giá, tạo sóng, lướt sóng. đẩy giá ảo đất nền, đất nông nghiệp rất cao so với giá trị thực để trục lợi.

Tuy nhiên, theo Hiệp hội hai yếu tố nêu trên chỉ phản ánh một phần thị trường bất động sản, và chủ yếu xảy ra ở phân khúc đất nền, đất nông nghiệp và condotel, chỉ có thể tạo ra các cơn sốt giá ảo, cục bộ, nhất thời, chứ không thể gây ra bong bóng trên toàn bộ thị trường bất động sản.

Bên cạnh đó, trong năm 2019, không có khả năng xảy ra bong bóng bất động sản còn do các cơ quan Nhà nước có thẩm quyền đã có nhiều kinh nghiệm về việc sử dụng kịp thời, hiệu quả công cụ về thuế; công cụ về tín dụng; công cụ về quy hoạch, kế hoạch sử dụng đất, chủ trương đầu tư dự án để điều tiết hiệu quả thị trường bất động sản ngay khi vừa xuất hiện dấu hiệu bong bóng.

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